Trends in COVID-19 admissions and deaths among people living with HIV in South Africa: analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the HIV prevalence among South African adults was 18% and more than 2 million people had uncontrolled HIV and, therefore, had increased risk of poor outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We investigated trends in COVID-19 admissions and factors associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among people living with HIV and people without HIV. METHODS: In this analysis of national surveillance data, we linked and analysed data collected between March 5, 2020, and May 28, 2022, from the DATCOV South African national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, the SARS-CoV-2 case line list, and the Electronic Vaccination Data System. All analyses included patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 with known in-hospital outcomes (ie, who were discharged alive or had died) at the time of data extraction. We used descriptive statistics for admissions and mortality trends. Using post-imputation random-effect multivariable logistic regression models, we compared characteristics and the case fatality ratio of people with HIV and people without HIV. Using modified Poisson regression models, we compared factors associated with mortality among all people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital and factors associated with mortality among people with HIV. FINDINGS: Among 397 082 people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital, 301 407 (75·9%) were discharged alive, 89 565 (22·6%) died, and 6110 (1·5%) had no recorded outcome. 270 737 (68·2%) people with COVID-19 had documented HIV status (22 858 with HIV and 247 879 without). Comparing characteristics of people without HIV and people with HIV in each COVID-19 wave, people with HIV had increased odds of mortality in the D614G (adjusted odds ratio 1·19, 95% CI 1·09-1·29), beta (1·08, 1·01-1·16), delta (1·10, 1·03-1·18), omicron BA.1 and BA.2 (1·71, 1·54-1·90), and omicron BA.4 and BA.5 (1·81, 1·41-2·33) waves. Among all COVID-19 admissions, mortality was lower among people with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted incident rate ratio 0·32, 95% CI 0·29-0·34) and with partial (0·93, 0·90-0·96), full (0·70, 0·67-0·73), or boosted (0·50, 0·41-0·62) COVID-19 vaccination. Compared with people without HIV who were unvaccinated, people without HIV who were vaccinated had lower risk of mortality (0·68, 0·65-0·71) but people with HIV who were vaccinated did not have any difference in mortality risk (1·08, 0·96-1·23). In-hospital mortality was higher for people with HIV with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per µL, irrespective of viral load and vaccination status. INTERPRETATION: HIV and immunosuppression might be important risk factors for mortality as COVID-19 becomes endemic. FUNDING: South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases, the South African National Government, and the United States Agency for International Development.

Trends in Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality Related to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 Subvariants in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we compared admission incidence risk and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave to previous waves. METHODS: Data from South Africa's SARS-CoV-2 case linelist, national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analyzed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100 000 population. In-hospital case fatality ratios (CFRs) during the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves were compared using post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: The CFR was 25.9% (N = 37 538 of 144 778), 10.9% (N = 6123 of 56 384), and 8.2% (N = 1212 of 14 879) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector, and province, compared with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.4) and Delta wave (aOR, 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8-3.2). Being partially vaccinated (aOR, 0.9; 95% CI: .9-.9), fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.6; 95% CI: .6-.7), and boosted (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .4-.5) and having prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .3-.4) were associated with reduced risks of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first 3 waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.